Brent Harris Elliott Wave
Futures Market Advisory Service

Quarterly Report Sample Page

Orange Juice (Oct. 10, 2005)

Given that a tremendous, 14.33-year BEAR CYCLE just ended in May of last year (at 54.20), and so far OJ prices have only retraced about 34%-of the former BEAR, there is little doubt that the overall pattern is HIGHLY BULLISH. Assuming the current BULL CYCLE at least equals the duration of the 1986-1990 BULL, or 4-years, the OJ market should effectively remain in a higher trend until at least the spring of 2008. In fact, because the last Bull failed to exceed the 1977 peak (220.00), I think there is better than a 50%-chance that this time around, a move to new all-time-highs will occur (+220.00), i.e., by 2008"? The only problem, however, is that an intervening, CYCLE-WAVE-B correction/decline has NOT occurred, yet. Note, while it is certainly possible that the current, A-wave section up will produce a HUGE ADVANCE, BEFORE an approximate, 6-month/wave-B pullback occurs, the RULE OF ALTERNATION suggests otherwise. In essence, because the initial, A-wave advance from the 1986-1990 BULL CYCLE was actually LARGER than the final, C-wave section up, the RULE OF ALTERNATION indicates that the opposite scenario will develop this time. In other words, the initial, A-wave rally from the 2004 bottom should be considerably SMALLER than the FINAL, wave-C leg-up. To that end, as long as the current advance holds VERY CRITICAL RESISTANCE at 111.50-to-112.40, traders should have an unbelievable buying opportunity next year, i.e., after a 6-month (?), wave-B decline unfolds. This resistance area incorporates the 34.55%-38.2%-retracement combination from the 1977 and 1990 highs, as well as the upper boundary-line from the 1993-2002 CONTRACTING TRIANGLE formation. Given a top in this area, wave-B down should retrace to AT LEAST the 90.00-cent level. Although, the optimum objective will probably be in the 85.00-80.00 range. Finally, in the event a strong penetration of the 111.50-112.40 does occur, then wave-A will likely extend to at least the 127.30-130.35 resistance.

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